France 2027 Election
Wins out of 100 simulated elections
Grid of 100 squares, by camp. RN wins in 81 out of 100 simulated elections (Le Pen 70, Bardella 11), Centrist bloc 10 (Philippe 9, Attal 1), Place publique-PS 6 (Glucksmann 6), Mainstream right 3 (Retailleau 2, Lisnard 1). Every other camp wins fewer than 1 in 100.
- RN81 Le Pen 70Bardella 11 (possible stand-in)
- Centrist bloc10 Philippe 9Attal 1 (possible stand-in)
- Place publique-PS6 Glucksmann 6
- Mainstream right3 Retailleau 2Lisnard 1 (possible stand-in)
| Candidate | Runsi | Makes runoff | Wins | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RN | 81% | |||
| Marine Le Pen RN | 85% | 77% | 70% | |
| Jordan Bardella RN | 15% | 13% | 11% | |
| Centrist bloc | 10% | |||
| Édouard Philippe Horizons | 80% | 26% | 9% | |
| Gabriel Attal Renaissance | 55% | 4% | 1% | |
| Raphaël Glucksmann Place publique | 90% | 27% | 6% | |
| Mainstream right | 3% | |||
| Bruno Retailleau LR | 60% | 5% | 2% | |
| David Lisnard Nouvelle Énergie | 45% | 4% | 1% | |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon LFI | 95% | 40% | <1% | |
| Éric Zemmour Reconquête | 74% | 2% | <1% | |
| Other candidates | 45–90% | <1% | <1% | |
How the forecast has changed
- RN
- Centrist bloc
- Place publique-PS
- Mainstream right
- LFI
- Debout!
Chance of winning by camp, in %, from April 2024 to October 2026: RN from 34% to 81%, Centrist bloc from 40% to 10%, Place publique-PS, from 24% in September 2024 to 6% in October 2026, Mainstream right, from 7% in April 2025 to 3% in October 2026, LFI from 18% to <1%, Debout!, from 7% in April 2024 to <1% in October 2026.
- : Appeal ruling clears Le Pen to run
- : Glucksmann wins the PS-Place publique primary
- : LR picks Retailleau
- : LFI picks Mélenchon
- : Attal announces his run
| Date | RN | Centrist bloc | Place publique-PS | Mainstream right | LFI | Debout! |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 81 | 10 | 6 | 3 | <1% | <1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 73% | 17% | 6% | 2% | 2% | <1% |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 68% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 53% | 30% | 8% | 3% | 5% | <1% |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 49% | 33% | 9% | 4% | 3% | <1% |
| Jun 2, 2026 | 50% | 31% | 11% | 3% | 2% | <1% |
| May 5, 2026 | 29% | 38% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 2% |
| Apr 7, 2026 | 27% | 39% | 15% | 7% | 8% | 2% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 34% | 30% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 2% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | 32% | 29% | 19% | 5% | 10% | 2% |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 30% | 31% | 18% | 6% | 10% | 2% |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 29% | 30% | 19% | 6% | 11% | 2% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 27% | 32% | 17% | 7% | 11% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 25% | 31% | 19% | 8% | 11% | 2% |
| Sep 2, 2025 | 23% | 36% | 16% | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | 21% | 37% | 17% | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Jul 1, 2025 | 20% | 37% | 16% | 10% | 12% | 3% |
| Jun 3, 2025 | 16% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 3% |
| May 6, 2025 | 18% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 13% | 3% |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 25% | 34% | 20% | — | 13% | 5% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 22% | 36% | 22% | — | 12% | 5% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 21% | 36% | 21% | — | 14% | 5% |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 20% | 35% | 23% | — | 13% | 5% |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 18% | 35% | 23% | — | 14% | 5% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 17% | 36% | 22% | — | 15% | 5% |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 18% | 35% | 23% | — | 15% | 6% |
| Sep 3, 2024 | 28% | 40% | — | — | 21% | 6% |
| Aug 6, 2024 | 28% | 39% | — | — | 22% | 7% |
| Jul 2, 2024 | 30% | 37% | — | — | 19% | 6% |
| Jun 4, 2024 | 31% | 37% | — | — | 19% | 7% |
| May 7, 2024 | 30% | 37% | — | — | 20% | 7% |
| Apr 23, 2024 | 34% | 40% | — | — | 18% | — |
First-round polling average
- Le Pen · RN
- Mélenchon · LFI
- Philippe · Horizons
- Glucksmann · Place publique
- Retailleau · LR
- Zemmour · Reconquête
- Tondelier · Les Écologistes
- Dupont-Aignan · Debout la France
- Roussel · PCF
- Arthaud · LO
First-round polling average since January 2026, with 80% ranges. As of October 27, 2026: Le Pen 35.8%, Mélenchon 16.8%, Philippe 15.7%, Glucksmann 13.5%, Retailleau 7.2%, Zemmour 4.2%, Tondelier 2.4%, Dupont-Aignan 1.9%, Roussel 1.8%, Arthaud 0.7%. Values are in the table below.
- : Appeal ruling clears Le Pen to run
- : Glucksmann wins the PS-Place publique primary
- : LR picks Retailleau
- : LFI picks Mélenchon
| Date | Le Pen | Mélenchon | Philippe | Glucksmann | Retailleau | Zemmour | Tondelier | Dupont-Aignan | Roussel | Arthaud |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | 35.8 | 16.8 | 15.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Oct 20 | 35.7 | 16.6 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Oct 13 | 35.7 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Oct 6 | 36.1 | 16.9 | 16.4 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Sep 29 | 35.3 | 16.8 | 17.5 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Sep 22 | 35.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Sep 15 | 33.5 | 17.6 | 17.9 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Sep 8 | 34.1 | 16.4 | 18.2 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Sep 1 | 33.2 | 16.4 | 18.7 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| Aug 25 | 34.0 | 15.9 | 18.3 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Aug 18 | 34.6 | 16.0 | 18.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Aug 11 | 34.0 | 16.1 | 18.5 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Aug 4 | 33.4 | 16.3 | 18.8 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Jul 28 | 32.6 | 16.5 | 19.3 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Jul 21 | 32.9 | 16.2 | 19.4 | 10.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Jul 14 | 34.0 | 15.4 | 19.3 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| Jul 7 | 34.8 | 14.7 | 19.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Jun 30 | 34.1 | 14.3 | 19.3 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Jun 23 | 33.3 | 14.0 | 19.3 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Jun 16 | 33.0 | 13.8 | 19.0 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Jun 9 | 32.8 | 13.7 | 18.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| Jun 2 | 32.5 | 13.6 | 18.8 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| May 26 | 32.2 | 13.6 | 18.7 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| May 19 | 32.3 | 13.4 | 18.6 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| May 12 | 32.3 | 13.0 | 18.8 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| May 5 | 32.3 | 12.5 | 19.1 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
Candidate scenarios
Election-day first-round vote share in the simulations: Le Pen, median 26.9%, half of the simulations between 21.8 and 32.3%, 80% between 17.3 and 37.8%; Mélenchon, median 15.6%, half of the simulations between 11.7 and 20.1%, 80% between 8.5 and 25.5%; Philippe, median 14.7%, half of the simulations between 11.0 and 19.3%, 80% between 8.1 and 24.7%; Glucksmann, median 13.1%, half of the simulations between 9.5 and 17.7%, 80% between 6.7 and 23.2%; Retailleau, median 8.4%, half of the simulations between 5.7 and 11.9%, 80% between 3.8 and 16.5%; Zemmour, median 5.3%, half of the simulations between 3.5 and 7.7%, 80% between 2.3 and 10.9%; Tondelier, median 3.0%, half of the simulations between 2.0 and 4.4%, 80% between 1.3 and 6.4%; Dupont-Aignan, median 2.3%, half of the simulations between 1.5 and 3.4%, 80% between 1.0 and 4.9%; Roussel, median 2.2%, half of the simulations between 1.4 and 3.3%, 80% between 0.9 and 4.8%; Arthaud, median 0.8%, half of the simulations between 0.5 and 1.3%, 80% between 0.3 and 1.9%.
| Candidate | Median | 50% of simulations | 80% of simulations | Polling average today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 26.9 | 21.8–32.3 | 17.3–37.8 | 35.8% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.6 | 11.7–20.1 | 8.5–25.5 | 16.8% |
| Édouard Philippe | 14.7 | 11.0–19.3 | 8.1–24.7 | 15.7% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 13.1 | 9.5–17.7 | 6.7–23.2 | 13.5% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 8.4 | 5.7–11.9 | 3.8–16.5 | 7.2% |
| Éric Zemmour | 5.3 | 3.5–7.7 | 2.3–10.9 | 4.2% |
| Marine Tondelier | 3.0 | 2.0–4.4 | 1.3–6.4 | 2.4% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.3 | 1.5–3.4 | 1.0–4.9 | 1.9% |
| Fabien Roussel | 2.2 | 1.4–3.3 | 0.9–4.8 | 1.8% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 0.8 | 0.5–1.3 | 0.3–1.9 | 0.7% |
The bars show each candidate’s election-day vote share across the simulations; the dot shows today’s polling average. The simulations pull candidates towards each other: in past campaigns, 10 of the 11 candidates polling at 20% or more five months out ended up lower.
| Candidate | Makes runoff | Win |
|---|---|---|
| Le Pen | 88% | 80% |
| Philippe | 34% | 10% |
| Glucksmann | 26% | 6% |
| Retailleau | 9% | 3% |
| Mélenchon | 39% | <1% |
| Zemmour | 3% | <1% |
| Tondelier | 1% | <1% |
| Dupont-Aignan | <1% | <1% |
| Arthaud | <1% | <1% |
| Roussel | <1% | <1% |
Averages and ranges
| Candidate | Average | 80% range | 95% range | Election day (mean) | Election day (80%) | Makes the runoff | Tops the first round |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Pen RN | 35.8 | 33.3–38.3 | 32.0–39.5 | 27.3 | 17.3–37.8 | 88% | 66% |
| Mélenchon LFI | 16.8 | 15.3–18.4 | 14.5–19.3 | 16.6 | 8.5–25.5 | 39% | 11% |
| Philippe Horizons | 15.7 | 14.1–17.2 | 13.5–18.2 | 15.8 | 8.1–24.7 | 34% | 10% |
| Glucksmann Place publique | 13.5 | 12.2–14.9 | 11.5–15.6 | 14.4 | 6.7–23.2 | 26% | 8% |
| Retailleau LR | 7.2 | 6.4–8.1 | 6.0–8.6 | 9.6 | 3.8–16.5 | 9% | 3% |
| Zemmour Reconquête | 4.2 | 3.7–4.7 | 3.4–5.1 | 6.2 | 2.3–10.9 | 3% | 1% |
| Tondelier Les Écologistes | 2.4 | 2.1–2.8 | 2.0–3.0 | 3.6 | 1.3–6.4 | 1% | <1% |
| Dupont-Aignan Debout la France | 1.9 | 1.6–2.2 | 1.5–2.3 | 2.8 | 1.0–4.9 | <1% | <1% |
| Roussel PCF | 1.8 | 1.6–2.1 | 1.4–2.3 | 2.7 | 0.9–4.8 | <1% | <1% |
| Arthaud LO | 0.7 | 0.6–0.8 | 0.5–0.9 | 1.0 | 0.3–1.9 | <1% | <1% |
Possible runoffs
-
Le Penvs.Mélenchon 32% chance of this runoff64.4%between 59 and 70% 35.7%between 30 and 41%
-
Le Penvs.Philippe 28% of simulations54.2%between 48 and 60% 45.8%between 40 and 52%
-
Le Penvs.Glucksmann 20% of simulations55.3%between 49 and 61% 44.7%between 39 and 51%
Other runoffs: 20% of simulations
Runoff polls
Le Pen – Mélenchon
Le Pen – Mélenchon: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote in the polling average, from October 2025 to October 2026. As of October 27, 2026: 69.3%, 80% range 66.3–72.1%. 21 polls, the latest on October 22, 2026. Values are in the table below.
| Date | Average | 80% range | Poll (pollster) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 69.3 | 66.3–72.1 | — |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 69.4 | 68.6–70.2 | 69 (OpinionWay) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 69.4 | 68.6–70.2 | 70 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.2 | 67.3–69.1 | 68 (Ifop) |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 68.2 | 67.3–69.1 | 69 (Elabe) |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 68.2 | 67.3–69.1 | 68 (YouGov) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 68.2 | 67.3–69.1 | 68 (OpinionWay) |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 67.2 | 66.2–68.2 | 67 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 67.2 | 66.2–68.2 | 68 (Odoxa) |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 67.6 | 66.3–68.9 | 69 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 66.2 | 64.2–68.2 | 64 (YouGov) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 66.9 | 65.6–68.2 | 67 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 66.9 | 65.6–68.2 | 67 (OpinionWay) |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 67.1 | 65.5–68.6 | 66 (OpinionWay) |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 67.9 | 66.6–69.1 | 69.5 (Elabe) |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 67.9 | 66.6–69.1 | 67 (Ifop) |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 67.7 | 66.6–68.7 | 68 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 62.7 | 60.7–64.6 | 61 (Cluster17) |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 67.8 | 67.0–68.7 | 67.5 (Elabe) |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 67.8 | 67.0–68.7 | 67 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 67.8 | 67.0–68.7 | 70 (Ifop) |
| May 27, 2026 | 67.0 | 65.8–68.1 | 67 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
Le Pen – Philippe
Le Pen – Philippe: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote in the polling average, from October 2025 to October 2026. As of October 27, 2026: 56.2%, 80% range 52.8–59.4%. 22 polls, the latest on October 22, 2026. Values are in the table below.
| Date | Average | 80% range | Poll (pollster) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 56.2 | 52.8–59.4 | — |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 56.3 | 55.4–57.3 | 56 (OpinionWay) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 56.3 | 55.4–57.3 | 57 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 54.1 | 53.1–55.1 | 56 (Ifop) |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 54.1 | 53.1–55.1 | 52.5 (Elabe) |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 54.1 | 53.1–55.1 | 52 (YouGov) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 54.1 | 53.1–55.1 | 56 (OpinionWay) |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 55.4 | 54.3–56.5 | 56 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 55.4 | 54.3–56.5 | 53 (Odoxa) |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 56.1 | 54.7–57.5 | 57 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 55.2 | 53.0–57.4 | 55 (YouGov) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 54.4 | 52.9–55.8 | 55 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 54.4 | 52.9–55.8 | 55 (OpinionWay) |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 52.5 | 50.8–54.2 | 52 (OpinionWay) |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 52.4 | 51.0–53.8 | 52.5 (Elabe) |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 52.4 | 51.0–53.8 | 52 (Ifop) |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 54.4 | 53.3–55.6 | 55 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 52.1 | 50.1–54.1 | 52 (Cluster17) |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 52.0 | 51.0–52.9 | 52 (Elabe) |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 52.0 | 51.0–52.9 | 51 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 52.0 | 51.0–52.9 | 54 (Ifop) |
| May 27, 2026 | 51.8 | 50.5–53.0 | 52 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 47.3 | 45.1–49.5 | 47 (Elabe) |
Le Pen – Glucksmann
Le Pen – Glucksmann: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote in the polling average, from July 2026 to October 2026. As of October 27, 2026: 57.2%, 80% range 53.8–60.4%. 11 polls, the latest on October 22, 2026. Values are in the table below.
| Date | Average | 80% range | Poll (pollster) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 57.2 | 53.8–60.4 | — |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 57.8 | 56.9–58.7 | 56 (OpinionWay) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 57.8 | 56.9–58.7 | 59 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 55.3 | 54.3–56.4 | 57 (Ifop) |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 55.3 | 54.3–56.4 | 53.5 (Elabe) |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 55.3 | 54.3–56.4 | 55 (YouGov) |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 55.3 | 54.3–56.4 | 56 (OpinionWay) |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 58.3 | 55.6–60.9 | 59 (YouGov) |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 56.0 | 54.6–57.4 | 57 (Elabe) |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 56.0 | 54.6–57.4 | 55 (Ifop) |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 56.5 | 54.5–58.5 | 56 (Cluster17) |
| Jul 10, 2026 | — | 58.5 (Elabe) |
Bardella – Mélenchon
Bardella – Mélenchon: Bardella’s share of the runoff vote in the polling average, from October 2025 to October 2026. As of October 27, 2026: 68.1%, 80% range 52.9–80.2%. 3 polls, the latest on May 27, 2026. Values are in the table below.
| Date | Average | 80% range | Poll (pollster) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 68.1 | 52.9–80.2 | — |
| May 27, 2026 | 68.1 | 66.9–69.2 | 68 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 71.5 | 69.6–73.3 | 71.5 (Elabe) |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 73.8 | 72.0–75.6 | 74 (Odoxa) |
Bardella – Philippe
Bardella – Philippe: Bardella’s share of the runoff vote in the polling average, from October 2025 to October 2026. As of October 27, 2026: 53.7%, 80% range 38.0–68.7%. 5 polls, the latest on May 27, 2026. Values are in the table below.
| Date | Average | 80% range | Poll (pollster) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 53.7 | 38.0–68.7 | — |
| May 27, 2026 | 53.7 | 52.5–54.9 | 54 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| May 21, 2026 | 52.3 | 50.4–54.1 | 52 (Odoxa) |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 48.4 | 46.6–50.1 | 48.5 (Elabe) |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 48.4 | 46.6–50.1 | 48 (Odoxa) |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 53.0 | 50.9–55.0 | 53 (Odoxa) |
Bardella – Glucksmann
Bardella – Glucksmann: Bardella’s share of the runoff vote in the 2 polls of the last 12 months. The latest, on March 27, 2026: 58.5%. Values are in the table below.
| Date | Average | 80% range | Poll (pollster) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | — | 58.5 (Elabe) | |
| Nov 20, 2025 | — | 58 (Odoxa) |
Le Pen – Attal
Le Pen – Attal: Le Pen’s share of the runoff vote in the polling average, from October 2025 to October 2026. As of October 27, 2026: 57.7%, 80% range 53.7–61.6%. 14 polls, the latest on October 19, 2026. Values are in the table below.
| Date | Average | 80% range | Poll (pollster) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | 57.7 | 53.7–61.6 | — |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 55.8 | 54.4–57.3 | 58 (Ifop) |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 55.8 | 54.4–57.3 | 55 (YouGov) |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 56.5 | 54.2–58.7 | 57 (YouGov) |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 55.9 | 54.3–57.4 | 56 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 55.6 | 53.9–57.3 | 55 (OpinionWay) |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 55.4 | 54.0–56.8 | 57 (Elabe) |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 55.4 | 54.0–56.8 | 54 (Ifop) |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 56.6 | 55.5–57.8 | 57 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Jul 24, 2026 | 55.7 | 53.7–57.7 | 56 (Cluster17) |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 54.8 | 53.9–55.7 | 54 (Elabe) |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 54.8 | 53.9–55.7 | 55 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 54.8 | 53.9–55.7 | 55 (Ifop) |
| May 27, 2026 | 53.9 | 52.7–55.1 | 54 (Toluna Harris Interactive) |
| Mar 27, 2026 | 51.0 | 48.8–53.2 | 51 (Elabe) |
Latest polls
| Pollfieldwork · pollster · sponsor · sample | Le Pen | Mélenchon | Philippe | Glucksmann | Retailleau | Lisnard | Attal | Zemmour | Tondelier | Ruffin | Dupont-Aignan | Roussel | Arthaud | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21–22 OpinionWay B CNews · 973 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 36 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 14.1% |
| Oct 21–22 Ipsos B+ no sponsor listed · 1,500 resp. · online · source ↗ | 32 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 5.5 | 6.5 | — | 4 | 3.5 | — | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 5.0% |
| Oct 19–21 Toluna Harris Interactive B+ no sponsor listed · 2,094 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 35 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 6 | — | 5 | 6 | 2 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3.8% |
| Oct 17–19 Ifop B− no sponsor listed · 1,928 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 34 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 4 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 | 2.0% |
| Oct 14–16 Elabe A− no sponsor listed · 1,701 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 31.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15 | 6.5 | 5.5 | — | 3 | 2.5 | — | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.7% |
| Oct 12–15 YouGov C+ Le HuffPost · 1,094 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 35 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.1% |
| Oct 14–15 Cluster17 B Le Point · 1,263 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 31 | 18 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 7 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.1% |
| Oct 13–14 OpinionWay B CNews · 1,043 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 35 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3.2% |
| Oct 13–14 OpinionWay B no sponsor listed · 1,001 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 35 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 7 | — | 7 | 4 | 3 | — | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.9% |
| Oct 12–14 Ifop B− LCI · 1,390 resp. · online · notice ↗ | 32 | 16 | 13 | 11.5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.5% |
Show all polls (74)
Pollster ratings
| Pollster | Rating | Mean error (pts) |
Relative error |
L | C | R | Far R | Elections rated |
Polls rated |
2027 polls |
Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | B+A− to B− | 2.03 | −0.03 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.3 | 13 | 80 | 4 | 1.06 |
| Toluna Harris Interactive | B+A to B− | 2.05 | −0.05 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.4 | 9 | 60 | 16 | 1.09 |
| LH2 | B−B to C | 2.15 | +0.07 | +0.4 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 0.89 |
| Verian | B+A to B− | 2.22 | −0.05 | +0.1 | −0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9 | 53 | 2 | 1.09 |
| Odoxa | A−A+ to B+ | 2.25 | −0.08 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.1 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 1.16 |
| YouGov | C+ | 2.27 | +0.14 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −0.5 | +0.7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0.79 |
| Elabe | A−A+ to B+ | 2.32 | −0.09 | −0.4 | +0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 7 | 34 | 6 | 1.18 |
| CSA | C+B− to C | 2.37 | +0.12 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.7 | +0.5 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0.82 |
| Ifop | B−B to C+ | 2.38 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | 12 | 101 | 21 | 0.91 |
| BVA | B−B+ to C+ | 2.39 | +0.04 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | 11 | 49 | 0 | 0.94 |
| Cluster17 | BA to C+ | 2.39 | −0.02 | +0.6 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.8 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 1.04 |
| OpinionWay | BA− to B− | 2.58 | −0.01 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.2 | 10 | 61 | 12 | 1.01 |
| AtlasIntel | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.83 | ||||||
| Le Terrain | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.83 | ||||||
| Viavoice | — | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.83 | ||||||
- AExpected error at least 7% below the average pollster’s (A+, A, A−)
- BBetween 7% below and 10% above the average (B+, B, B−)
- CMore than 10% above the average (C+, C)
- —Limited track record: default weight
Methodology
This site tracks every published voting-intention poll for the 2027 presidential election since March 2023: 74 first-round polls, covering 316 candidate lineups, and 31 runoff polls as of October 22, 2026. The list comes from Wikipedia and is checked against the filings pollsters must make with France’s polling regulator, the Commission des sondages. Each poll is shown with its pollster, sponsor, fieldwork dates, sample size and method.
French pollsters often test several lineups of candidates in the same poll. Each lineup is mapped onto a reference field: the declared candidates that pollsters test regularly. When a candidate is missing from a lineup, we estimate where their voters go from polls that tested both lineups on the same respondents.
The average weights each poll by how recent it is, its sample size and its pollster’s rating. It is smoothed over time, and the band around each line shows the uncertainty in today’s average.
Pollsters are rated on their track record across 13 elections: the presidential elections from 1995 to 2022, the European elections from 2009 to 2024 and the legislative elections from 2017 to 2024. The gaps between them are small: weights range from 0.8 to 1.2 and barely move the average.
The model runs the election 20,000 times. Each simulation starts from the current average, with the front-runners pulled back towards the pack: in past campaigns, 10 of the 11 candidates polling at 20% or more five months out ended up lower. It then adds two sources of uncertainty: how opinion may shift before the vote, and the error all pollsters share on election day. Both are calibrated on the presidential elections from 1995 to 2022, for major and minor candidates alike. The top two in each simulation go through to the runoff, which is decided by the head-to-head polls or, for a matchup that has never been polled, by estimated vote transfers.
A candidate’s chance of winning is the share of simulations they win.
The field is not official yet, and the headline figure accounts for that. Each simulation first draws who is on the ballot, based on each candidate’s chance of running, and never keeps two candidates from the same camp when only one of them can run, such as Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. Results are then grouped by camp. These chances are editorial estimates based on past elections. Since 1995, six months before the first round, 96% of the most-polled candidates made it onto the ballot, as did 75% of the minor candidates polled regularly and 30% of the figures polled only occasionally. The scenarios further down each assume a fixed field, the most likely one by default, and first-round polling is mapped onto that field. Each candidate’s chance of running, and the reasoning behind it, is published with the data.
In past presidential elections, the model’s 80% range contained the result 79% of the time five months before the vote, 84% three months out, 81% one month out and 84% a week out. These rates rest on six elections and about thirty candidates at each point, so a gap of 10 points from the target is within the range of chance. In 2017 and 2022, runoff polls overstated the far right by 3 to 4 points. The model does not adjust for this, as there are too few elections to go on; if it happened again, Marine Le Pen’s chance of winning would be a few points lower.
The forecast is updated every night. Under France’s law of 19 July 1977, no poll is published or discussed on this site on the day before or the day of each round, and the forecast is frozen during that time. The simulations shown here are calculations based on published polls.
Forecast sensitivity
| If… | Le Pen | Bardella | Philippe | Glucksmann | Attal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline assumptions | 70% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 1% |
| Campaign drift halved | 75% | 12% | 7% | 4% | 1% |
| Campaign drift multiplied by 1.5 | 67% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 1% |
| No drift (opinion stays put until election day) | 78% | 13% | 5% | 3% | <1% |
| Systematic polling error multiplied by 1.5 | 69% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 1% |
| Normal tails instead of Student’s t | 73% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 1% |
| 0.5 correlation between candidates of the same bloc | 70% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 1% |
| Runoff error and drift multiplied by 1.5 | 65% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 2% |
| First-round shocks carried into the runoff, not capped at its calibrated drift | 61% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 2% |
| Runoff polls ignored (vote-transfer model only) | 62% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 2% |
| Most likely field, no uncertainty over who runs | 80% | <1% | 10% | 6% | <1% |
| Every declared, regularly polled candidate runs | 74% | <1% | 10% | 6% | 2% |
| Twice the risk that candidates drop out | 62% | 26% | 5% | 5% | <1% |
| Half the risk that candidates drop out | 72% | 5% | 9% | 7% | 1% |
| Election-day shares centred on today’s average, no uncertainty about reversion to the mean | 79% | 14% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| Centred on today’s average, reversion to the mean drawn in either direction (raw shares) | 79% | 14% | 3% | 2% | <1% |
| Shares revert towards the field average (log scale), rate estimated without shrinkage | 70% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 1% |
| Shares revert towards the field average (raw shares) | 75% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| If the 2017 and 2022 runoff polling miss recurs (far right overstated in the runoff, average error at this point in the race) | 66% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 2% |
- Polls: Wikipedia (Wikipedia contributors, CC BY-SA 4.0), checked against the notices of the Commission des sondages.
- 2022 history: NSPPolls (MIT license).
- Official results: Conseil constitutionnel; French Interior Ministry (data.gouv.fr, Licence Ouverte).